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Remember that line near the end of The Aviator when Howard Hughes says (repeatedly) “…it’s the way of the future…the way of the future…the way of the future…”?

Well, what is the way of the future?…as it relates to technology, that is.  Especially personal technology.  The stuff you see and touch every day.  I’m talking about the hardware first: desktop/notebook/tablet computers, mobile phones, e-readers, MP3 players, CD players and jukeboxes, DVD and BluRay players, media players, game consoles, televisions, surround sound systems, cable and satellite boxes and DVR’s, printers, scanners, analog phones, and whatever other devices you have crammed into your life.  And, I’m taking about the software required to run all those devices.  Yes…they all depend on software to operate (except that old POTS phone some of us keep for emergency situations).

Of course, what I’m about to say here is not news to most readers, and the future I’m talking about is not very far away…we might as well just go ahead and say the future is now.  This is in progress.  But, I want to eventually make a point.  So, please bear with me…

There’s an obvious convergence under way; a convergence of (let’s call it fixed) computing, networking, mobile technologies, and entertainment.  This has been going on for quite some time…at least a decade…and accelerates as broadband internet access becomes more and more ubiquitous. Accessibility is driving applications and thus driving development of always-on devices such as smart phones, tablet computers, and internet connected entertainment devices.

Accessibility has been driving development of online services (software-as-a-service, or SaaS) offerings for more than a decade.  The scalability and storage requirements associated with SaaS has led to cloud computing, cloud storage, and new offerings such as platform-as-a-service (PaaS) and infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS).  The combination of network accessibility, SaaS, and cloud storage is driving development of web-based devices and software, such a Google’s Chrome OS and associated to-be-released devices.

We’re seeing development of specialized devices with embedded operating systems and applications. This is most apparent in the white-hot entertainment space where RokuBoxee, PopBox, Apple, and Google all have released (or will release in the next couple of months) set top boxes that provide access to online movies, internet TV, and internet audio sites.  Game consoles and some televisions and BluRay players have network connectivity and online media access capabilities built in.

You can see similar convergence in the mobile space.  Smart phones look more and more like general purpose devices every day.  Your phone can be a still camera, video camera, video player, music player, GPS, web browser, remote control, and…phone.  Tablet computers look like notebook computers without keyboards.  Make them small enough and they start to look like mobile phones.  Add a blue-tooth keyboard and a tablet looks like a notebook computer, or even a desktop.  Add another display and a tablet computer starts to look like a book (yes…take a look at Kno).

Where is all this leading?  TV’s look like computers.  Phones look like computers.  Computers look like TV’s and phones.  Everything is online…devices, applications and content.

Here’s where we’re headed…

CD, DVD, and BluRay media (and probably most books) will go the way of vinyl records and cassette tapes and will disappear.  Content will be freely available for streaming, rented for single play, made available through subscription services (like Netflix), or available for purchase and download (like iTunes).  A purchase will (eventually) not involve download or local storage of content.  Instead, a license will be purchased that allows unlimited perpetual access to an online version.

Over the air television and radio broadcasting will shift to network delivery.  Cable and satellite companies will follow suit and move to on-demand IP network delivery of content.  Wired communications will give way to wireless.  All communications shift to wireless IP-based networking.

The linear programming models of network TV and radio will move to user-driven on-demand self scheduling via ad-hoc access and playlists.  Media players and/or online services will assist users in finding content based on their interests and recommendations by their online community.  Search will not be the primary means of finding content.

There will continue to be content creators.  (In fact, there will be more independent content created.)  But, the distribution model changes…shifts to an online on-demand model.  Analog delivery methods go away (physical media, over the air broadcasting, current cable and satellite delivery).

All those media players you currently own will be come obsolete.  The radio tuner in your receiver, the tuner in your TV, the CD/DVD/BluRay players, the cable box, the satellite box…they will all merge together into a network connected media access and rendering device similar to the BoxeeBox, AppleTV and others mentioned above.  Maybe these capabilities will be merged into display devices, especially televisions.  If we consider smart phones and tablet devices to be all-in-one computers and displays, then it seems likely that televisions will become simply larger all-in-one devices.  Of course, the lack of a multi-touch television screen will be an issue, so we will likely see multi-touch remote controls (like this) designed to give big screen viewers the same kind of interface they have on their smaller devices.

eReaders will be replaced by, or morph into, tablet computers.  Text books will be replaced by tablet computers (see Kno).  Hard-copy books will (except for special editions) be replaced by eBooks. Newspapers and magazines will soon follow suit.

Applications will continue to move online.  Your computer needs little more than a browser and supporting software (operating system, networking, media players, display drivers) to provide all the functionality a typical user requires.  Online applications can provide the rest…email, word processing, spreadsheets, drawing, financial, etc.  Some users that are original content creators (graphic artists, photographers, musicians, programmers, engineers) may need more significant local resources (hardware and software), but most users can get by quite happily with an embedded operating systems such as Chrome OS.

Voice communication will move away from POTS service and toward voice over IP or Skype-like services.  Dual cameras in mobile phones and tablets support video calling.

Printers and scanners will reside on the home network, supporting shared and remote (print from anywhere) access.

So, here we are…in the future.  All forms of analog media distribution and communication have been replaced by more efficient always-on IP networking.  Mobile phones, tablet computers, notebook/desktop replacements, and perhaps even televisions all look like all-in-one computers in small, medium, large, and extra-large sizes.  In the home theater, you may have a media access device; you will likely still have a surround-sound system.  Mix and match components will likely be with us in high-end systems for quite some time to come.  These computers run an embedded operating system and provide browser (or browser-like) access to online content and applications.

The future home network includes a gateway that provides remote access to the devices within.  Print from anywhere.  Access network-connected cameras and see what’s happening at home.  Access your home control system to adjust the temperature or turn on the security system.

This whole eco-system makes a lot of sense, and is very likely where we’ll be in the not-too-distant future.  But, there’s one piece that’s missing.

Where do I keep the content that I create?  Where do I store my photos, videos, documents, spreadsheets, and similar files that I create?  One could argue (and I’m sure application providers will) that you should store your files near the applications that you use to create and edit them.  If the applications are in the cloud, then your data should be in the cloud as well.  But, what about interoperability?  What if I use different providers for email and word processing?  How do I attach a document that I created with a Windows Live application to an email I’m writing with Gmail?  I’m sure the service providers will argue that this is not a problem as long as you use the integrated set of applications from a single vendor.  But, that’s simply an unrealistic view of how users will access these services.  There are all kinds of interoperability and comparability issues to consider.  Add to this the complexity and cost of multiple application providers and data stored at multiple locations, and most people will become confused and frustrated.

If I have to store my photos on one site, videos somewhere else, email at another, financial records somewhere else, and on and on, that sounds frustrating.  Why can’t I store all of my content in a central location?  And…easily access it from all the online apps I use.

Interoperability is the biggest problem with the cloud model.

I think a better approach would be to give consumers control of their storage.  Let them create their own cloud storage.  Put a storage device on their home network and provide transparent access to it from any device (or service) they use.  Simple.  Easy to understand.  Transparent.  All in one place.

 

What cloud services do consumers really want?  I think most consumers will, when they understand the concept, pay for cloud storage services.  They will (or do already) want a secure place to put their stuff, easy ways to put stuff in and get it out, and maybe a way to easily share stuff with others…stuff, of course, being content that they own.   Most consumers will, possibly without caring to understand how it works, be willing to use (useful) applications delivered via a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model (ideally for free).  Some will want to run special applications…like a blog.  Most of those would prefer to get access to these specialized apps for free as well.

Here, I just want to discuss cloud storage options for consumers.  In an upcoming post, I’ll discuss other service offerings.

[btw - I realize that "ownership" of some published content is up for debate...so, let's say, for now, that ownership is equivalent to holding a license to use, view, interact with, etc.  Consumers believe that when they pay a fee to gain access to content, that they should be able to conveniently utilize that content on any of the devices they own.  Maybe there are some concurrency issues to consider, and certainly, there are some sharing issues to figure out.  For example, if it's okay for me to loan you a CD, DVD, or BluRay disc (it is, isn't it?), then why can't I let you access the content that I put up in the cloud?]

Well…regardless of whether one should be able to do this, it will happen, is happening.  The question is how to deliver cloud storage services to consumers.

There are two main models that are being developed/offered:

  • A centralized model, being developed by Google, Microsoft, Verizon, Amazon, and others.  In this model, all data is pushed up to a massive storage infrastructure that is managed by the service provider.  As long as the consumer has internet connectivity, they have access to their content via a variety of client applications.
  • A widely distributed model, being developed by Cloud Engines and others.  In this model, the consumer purchases an interface device and a storage device (or an all-in-one NAS device), and operates his/her own storage infrastructure.  The service provider facilitates remote access from a variety of client applications and devices.

So, which of these models is right for consumers?  Let’s look at each from a consumer viewpoint.  Which is best for the consumer?  Which will win out in the end?

Centralized Cloud Storage Model

There’s a big push to build out and sell centralized storage services.  The marketing spin is all about ubiquitous access and data security, but the real goal is user retention.  Carriers need something, anything, to sell to consumers to lock them in.  Without this up-sell/lock-in approach, carriers would be vulnerable to consumer price shopping  and downward pressure on bandwidth pricing…the dreaded dumb pipe syndrome.  Ad-based services (e.g. Google) need to keep consumers coming back.  The more a consumer accesses a search provider’s services, the more the provider can learn about the consumer, and the more valuable ad impressions become.

How does it work?  It’s pretty simple.  For some subscription fee, or perhaps even for free, the consumer is allocated an amount of storage within the provider’s cloud storage infrastructure.  Consumers push content up to their drive in the sky, and then can access their files via client applications supplied by the storage provider.  The provider takes care of backups and availability (of storage, not necessarily network access).

There’s plenty of incentive for certain cloud storage providers to move consumers to a centralized model.

In this model, the provider charges consumers a subscription fee for some potential amount of storage, not necessarily for what is actually used.  Further, the provider calculates space consumed using the uncompressed size of files uploaded.  Of course, they compress files for storage (and possibly for network transmission), and while some files don’t compress much, some do.  The difference between perceived reserved space and space actually used is known as breakage.  The fees consumers pay for breakage are pure profit to the provider.  It’s like buying a gift card that is never used, or subscribing to Netflix and never putting any movies in your queue, or like joining a gym and never using the facilities.

While some services provide a small amount of storage for free (e.g. Google provides 1GB of free storage with Google Docs), this limited amount is almost useless for media storage…and, (I contend) most consumers will want to store their media collection in the cloud (or somewhere that is accessible from anywhere).  At 4GB each, a collection of BluRay movies will consume a lot of space quickly.  Allocations of 200GB and more will be common and, at this point, price becomes an issue.  Google charges $50/year for 200GB of space, and $100/year for 400GB.  By contrast, one can currently purchase internal hard drive space for just over $0.05/GB (retail).

Distributed Cloud Storage Model

A few vendors are now selling network attached storage (NAS) devices that allow consumers to provide their own “cloud” storage.  Still others are selling small network devices, with NAS software embedded, to which consumers can attach their own external disk drive via a USB interface.  All of these become, essentially, always-on computers residing securely within the consumers home network environment.  Some, provide remote access via services from the device vendor.

I think the folks at Cloud Engines (Pogoplug) are on the right track…not there yet, but close.  (Personally, I think they should have stuck with the plug computer form factor that they used for their prototype.  But, what do I know.  Maybe everyone else likes the oddball packaging with magenta trim.  At least they put black trim on the business version.)

For $99 you get the NAS interface device, free remote access service, and applications that provide transparent access from PC’s and mobile devices.  One major missing feature is support for DLNA and UPnP.  Any NAS device targeted at home users must support these protocols.  Consumers may not ask for it now, but they will…and soon.

A more complete solution is being offered by iOmega…Their StorCenter products offer RAID 1 (mirroring) support, and come with included backup software, remote access, and DLNA/UPnP support.  The remote access service, which sounds like may just be a dynamic DNS service, is free for the first year and $10/year thereafter.  If this really is just a dynamic DNS service, it should be free for the life of the product (imho).

For those consumers that are capable of rolling their own solution, the folks at CodeLathe present a very good solution with Tonido.  Their TonidoPlug allows consumers to create their own personal cloud.  It’s based on the (now) popular SheevaPlug platform from Marvell (the Pogoplug is based on the same platform).  The plug is similar to the Pogoplug, but includes DLNA/UPnP support, and CodeLathe provides many more client applications.

Another SheevaPlug-based system is the hybrid CTERA CloudPlug device.  This system blends the Pogoplug approach with backup to a centralized cloud storage provider.  The system, targeted at SOHO users, supports UPnP and Bonjour, which is Apple’s service discovery protocol, but apparently does not support DLNA.  It also provides sync to PC and sync to cloud features that may improve access performance for business users.  (This appears to be a simple way of providing offline access to files on the PC, and essentially auto-backup to the cloud.)  I think that keeping three copies of files in sync provides a lot of opportunity for error, and may be a point of confusion to some users.  I haven’t had any hands-on time with any of these devices, but this one seems to be over engineered and not simple enough for the ordinary consumer.  Again, it’s targeted at SOHO users, but may be missing an opportunity.  If it can be delivered affordably, this hybrid approach may be the right one.

Consumer Cloud Storage Requirements

So just what are the requirements cloud storage vendors should be addressing?

  1. Simple, transparent – the system/service must be easy to deploy and use…essentially invisible.  Let’s look closer at this below.
  2. Affordable – that is…cheap…say not more than $10/month for unlimited space (let’s assume 1TB is sufficient to be considered unlimited).
  3. Fast – at least it should be perceived as being fast.  This simply means that latency should be un-noticeable.  Media files must start playing quickly and stream at a rate that will support real-time playback of the content.  Other files would ideally open as if stored locally.
  4. Accessible – must be easily accessible from all devices the consumer may want to use to access their content.  (Again, let’s look closer below.)  Sharing features should allow the consumer to provide access to friends, ideally without requiring software to be installed on the friend’s access device.
  5. Available – stored content must always be available when the consumer wants/needs it.
  6. Reliable – stored content should not be at risk of loss.  This implies a need for RAID or some kind of integrated backup.
  7. Open – consumers should not be locked in to a solution.  They should be able to easily move their content to another solution.

To drill down a bit on some of these…What does it mean to be simple, transparent, and accessible?  I think it means that the solution must integrate easily with the collection of devices and applications that will be used to store and access content.  So, support for auto-discovery protocols like UPnP, DLNA, and Bonjour are needed to facilitate installation.  Support for common file sharing protocol (CIFS, for example) are needed to facilitate storage and access.  Native or embedded applications should provide intuitive access via mobile devices.  One should not have to download a file to open it in an editor.  The storage volume should appear to be a local device and the solution should facilitate multi-user access (i.e. file locking and perhaps block-level access).

Quick Analysis

So which of the solutions mentioned above meet all of these requirements?  The short answer is…none of them.  I think the iOmega StorCenter solution comes close, but appears weak in it’s remote access features.  Pogoplug comes up short in the reliability area.  I think the CTERA solution is too complex and perhaps too expensive.  And, the Tonido solution lacks RAID or backup and just seems too cumbersome for ordinary consumers.  The centralized storage solutions fall down in regards to affordability, accessibility and openness.  I really think they can benefit from a hybrid solution like CTERA’s, with modifications, but also need to find a way to deliver LOTS of storage for a low price.

Again, I must admit that I have not had any hands-on time with any of these solutions.  We’ll take a closer look in future posts.

 

A lot of DLNA enabled products are hitting the market these days.  LG just announced a DLNA capable PHONE (yes, a mobile phone) called the Optimus 7 and, of course, there are a lot of TV’s and storage products out there already…with many more to come.

If you’re not familiar with DLNA, you can take a look at the consortium’s web site here.  The Digital Living Network Alliance is a group of 245 electronics manufacturers that are developing products that interoperate over standard network protocols.  The standards developed by the group define several classes of devices that serve some function in an entertainment system – things that serve content (from some internal or connected media), things that render content, things that display or print content, etc.  The idea being, of course, that your DLNA enabled TV will be able to find DLNA servers (Blu-Ray player, media server, and yes, even a mobile phone) on your home network and display content that they deliver.

And, this has all been in development since 2003 with little attention from consumers.

A typical scenario would be that you have some content on your home network, say on a DLNA enabled NAS (network attached storage) device (LG and others have them on the market now).  So, you’d use your DLNA enabled TV or media player  to access the NAS and play the selected content…similar to streaming movies from Netflix.

So, let’s say you go to the trouble of ripping your DVDs and BluRays and put the content on your big NAS on your home network.    And, now you want  to enjoy your content on your mobile device (phone, tablet, PC) when you’re NOT at home.  You’ve got two problems:  one is just getting access to the NAS behind your firewall, and when you do set that up, you’ve still got an upstream bandwidth problem.   The bandwidth from your home to your ISP is almost certainly less than 1mb/s.

I suppose you could opt for a Pogoplug device (you’ve heard of this, right?) to provide access, but it doesn’t appear to support DLNA, and you still have the upstream bandwidth problem.

Another issue with this local NAS approach is that you really need to backup all that content.  It would be a shame to have to rebuild your media library from scratch if you lose the NAS drive.

So, why not put all your media up in the cloud?  If you ask Pogoplug, they’ll say it costs too much.  Maybe…maybe not.  We’ll come back to that.

What if you had a NAS with no internal storage?  Just a small box that plugs into your network and provides a DLNA interface to some amount of storage out on one of the cloud storage services.  Couple that with software “servers” that can run on mobile devices (or even on routers, media servers, etc.) and you have universal access to your media library no matter where you are…and without having to deal with the slow pipe from home to the web…and no worries about backups…and with the potential to share your library with others.

Now…the cost issue.  How is it that Backblaze can provide unlimited storage for $5 per month?  You’ll have to check out their blog to get that answer, but the point is storage is cheap (or can be) and will get cheaper.  At some point, the price will be low enough that consumers will be willing to subscribe to an easy to use service that does not require them to play network admin to setup and maintain.

 

While looking for an alternative to the default WordPress WYSIWYG editor, I found that it’s possible to post entries directly from Word 2007. This works over XML-RPC protocol and provides a much nicer editing interface. We’ll play around and discover the capabilities as we need them.

I also played around a bit with BlogDesk… and inserted this of my eldest son checking out the fog on the Pacific Ocean somewhere between Monterey and Big Sur. This was a surrealistic scene overlooking a 40 or 50 foot sheer cliff.

BlogDesk is a bare bones editor with a somewhat clunky interface – especially if you tend to update posts.  Word, on the other hand, presents a familiar interface, but seems a little quirky – especially when inserting and positioning images.

Sep 082010
 

Just finished a little project to integrate PayPal into a non-profit organization’s web site.

In Texas, mums are a huge tradition for high-schoolers to wear during Homecoming and by giving students an opportunity to donate, Mums for Missions aspires to teach, facilitate, and model joyful giving.

Check them out at mumsformissions.org

You don’t have to be in high school, or even planning to attend your own homecoming game, to donate.  This organization is run by great people who are working hard to make sure your donation goes to a good cause.